2015 Kona Predictions
A little delayed, but still in time. Here are my thoughts and predictions for this Saturday’s Ironman World Championship in Kona. First, let’s get a quick list of who’s slated to race:
| Men | Women |
| 1 Sebastian Kienle GER 2 Jan Frodeno GER 3 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 4 Ben Hoffman USA 5 Andy Potts USA 6 Nils Frommhold GER 7 Timothy Van Berkel AUS 8 Bart Aernouts BEL 9 Lionel Sanders CAN 10 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 12 Matt Hanson USA 14 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 15 Jeffrey Symonds CAN 16 Cyril Viennot FRA 17 Tim Don GBR 18 Brent McMahon CAN 19 Matt Trautman RSA 20 Bas Diederen NLD 21 Timothy O’Donnell USA 22 Romain Guillaume FRA 23 Cameron Brown NZL 24 Ivan Rana ESP 25 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 26 Joe Skipper GBR 27 Michael Weiss AUT 28 Eneko Llanos ESP 29 Tyler Butterfield BER 30 Clemente Alonso-Mckernan ESP 31 Callum Millward NZL 32 Brad Kahlefeldt AUS 33 David Mcnamee GBR 34 Andi Boecherer GER 35 Andreas Raelert GER 36 Luke McKenzie AUS 37 Boris Stein GER 38 Dylan McNeice NZL 39 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 40 Igor Amorelli BRA 41 Denis Chevrot FRA 42 Jordan Rapp USA 43 Christian Kramer GER 44 Paul Ambrose AUS 45 Pedro Gomes PRT 46 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 47 Viktor Zyemtsev UKR 48 Kyle Buckingham RSA 49 Jan Van Berkel SUI 50 Maik Twelsiek GER 51 Victor Del Corral Morales ESP 52 Fraser Cartmell GBR 53 Daniel Bretscher USA 54 Miquel Tinto ESP 55 Luke Bell AUS 56 Matt Chrabot USA 57 Jeremy Jurkiewcz FRA 58 Justin Daerr USA |
101 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 102 Daniela Ryf SUI 103 Jodie Swallow GBR 104 Caroline Steffen SUI 105 Rachel Joyce GBR 106 Julia Gajer GER 107 Mary Beth Ellis USA 108 Gina Crawford NZL 109 Meredith Kessler USA 110 Leanda Cave GBR 111 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 112 Angela Naeth CAN 113 Ariane Monticeli BRA 114 Elizabeth Lyles USA 115 Liz Blatchford AUS 116 Heather Wurtele CAN 117 Lucy Gossage GBR 118 Camilla Pedersen DNK 119 Eva Wutti AUT 120 Diana Riesler GER 121 Susie Cheetham GBR 122 Michelle Vesterby DNK 123 Amanda Stevens USA 124 Beth Gerdes USA 125 Heather Jackson USA 126 Britta Martin NZL 127 Ruth Brennan Morrey USA 128 Mareen Hufe GER 129 Haley Chura USA 130 Annabel Luxford AUS 131 Kelly Williamson USA 132 Dede Griesbauer USA 133 Astrid Stienen GER 134 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 135 Corinne Abraham GBR 136 Tine Deckers BEL 137 Asa Lundstrom SWE 138 Shiao-Yu Li TWN 139 Sarah Piampiano USA 140 Caitlin Snow USA 141 Sofie Goos BEL 142 Laurel Wassner USA |
Of Those racing, below are the folks I think could still be in the conversation for top ten on the run (with comments). Statistically, you need to have been top 4 the previous year in order to win it. That has only NOT happened twice since the 80’s (1996 and 2006). That leaves, Kienle, Frodeno, Hoffman, and Potts for the win. Given the season’s that they are having, virtual everyone making picks are giving the nod to either Sebastian or Jan. Potts is quick as ever at the half and relatively untested in the full as he keeps to lesser races in the States. The Hoff hasn’t had consistent dominance this season, So I’m calling the top 3 with a safe and boring prediction of 1st – Frodeno, 2nd Kienle and 3rd Potts. I see others in the hunt for those spots but more specifically, the top 10, so here are my thoughts on each:
1 Sebastian Kienle GER – Defending champ. He’s gonna need to fight like hell in the water to minimize the damage that Potts and Frodo will do to him. If he can put 8 minutes or so on Frodeno off the bike, he’s got a shot to repeat, but he can’t cook himself in the process.
2 Jan Frodeno GER – It’s Frodo’s to lose. Had he not flatted and had a penalty (and messy T2) last year and we might be discussing him as defending champ. He’s a faster swimmer than Kienle, been a faster cyclist than Kienle and a faster runner. He’s beat Kienle heads up in two major races this year. Some think that 70.3 Worlds showed Kienle is coming into form, but Frodeno’s focus was Frankfurt, not Worlds. Bottom line, if he doesn’t blow up, he wins. Plus, his wife is smokin hot.
3 Frederik Van Lierde BEL – Former champ. Lots of experience and no weaknesses, but no stand out strengths either. He won in gladiator style as those ahead of him collapsed (literally). So if it’s a rough day out there, he will rise. Top 5.
4 Ben Hoffman USA – Inconsistent this year after his breakout second place. I hope “The Hoff” proves not to be the one hitter that Pete Jacobs has shown to be, but I don’t see it this year.
5 Andy Potts USA – Very balanced race last year. Fastest swim and 3rd fastest run, and only 2:15 out of second place. He’s got tons of experience here, so a solid bike ride gets him 3rd and a podium.
6 Nils Frommhold GER – Well rounded. Strong in all 3 disciplines. We’ll see if coming to Texas to prepare was a smart decision.
7 Timothy Van Berkel AUS– Almost identical to Nils in performance last year. If he has a good day, he’ll be hunting for podium.
8 Bart Aernouts BEL – Has got to get out of the water faster. If you get out of the water behind Kienle but can’t ride like him, a podium is out.
9 Lionel Sanders CAN – Has to fix his swim. He’ll likely ride like a bat out of hell, but making up 10 minutes out of the water will likely cost him dearly on the run.
12 Matt Hanson USA – A sentimental favorite of mine. He won the North American Champs, but did it from a 10 minute deficit to Joe Skipper off the bike. He has to show he can swim better, because the leaders will put him away early if he doesn’t. He needs a really hot run to claw through the field. If he gets that, I think a top 10 will be possible.
14 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL – No one can say Marino doesn’t leave it all out there. He has blown up late in an Ironman on a number of occasions, so that’s almost come to be expected as this point. BUT, If his head is right, he has the talent to be fighting for the win. The “I quit Kona”, “I’m coming out of Kona retirement” (in less than a year) thing has me wondering if the pressure is off a bit and he has a great day.
17 Tim Don GBR – Rookie Kona race. At 37 and former Olympian, he has the skills, but needs some Kona experience.
21 Timothy O’Donnell USA – He’s got the talent to podium or even win, but last year fell apart on the run. If he puts it all together he could be the top American and in the hunt for a podium.
24 Ivan Rana ESP – Great runner, but lost 28 minutes to Kienle last year on the bike. 28. Twenty Eight. XXVIII. Has to ride faster and run his arse off to crack top 10.
26 Joe Skipper GBR -I honestly don’t know where to put this guy. Super talented, super nice, and has won at the distance. Got out of the water next to Hanson at Texas, but then threw down a 4:10 bike. If he can get to dry land quick enough he could be in the first group off the bike. But if he’s trying to make up a minute on Kienle on the ride, then he could be walking on the Queen K. A smart race and cooler temps puts him in the top 10 I think.
28 Eneko Llanos ESP – “It is a dream, but really hard to make it real. I want to happy with my performance and feel I did my best. I’d be happy with top 10.” -Eneko Llanos – That’s all you need to know.
35 Andreas Raelert GER – Man oh man. One of my favorite races to watch, second to Ironwar, was Raelert and Macca duking it out. He has the talent. He’s proven the podium. Every year though since the Macca battle, it seems something has derailed the season. DNF in Texas as he was set up nicely to win it. I hope he puts another one together, because it sure would be fun to see some gutsy racing from him.
36 Luke McKenzie AUS – My gut says resurgence on Saturday. He’s grabbed an Ironman this year and is in good shape. But he’s got a family now, which is often the kiss of death for the top pro men. If he doesn’t reclaim his old self this year then he won’t. Worth following on Instagram though.
50 Maik Twelsiek GER – Crushed the bike last year, and was less than a minute off the top ten. If he can get out of the water quicker, I expect to see him on TV for the return trip from Hawi, but needs a quicker run to hang on to a top 10 spot.
58 Justin Daerr USA -I’m just not sure how well his swim has progressed. He’s another sentimental favorite being a Texas boy (and former Aggie if I recall). He’s got the bike and run skills to get him there, but like some of the others, if he misses the train out of town, he’s gonna have a helluva time trying to get back into the fight.
2 Jan Frodeno GER – It’s Frodo’s to lose. Had he not flatted and had a penalty (and messy T2) last year and we might be discussing him as defending champ. He’s a faster swimmer than Kienle, been a faster cyclist than Kienle and a faster runner. He’s beat Kienle heads up in two major races this year. Some think that 70.3 Worlds showed Kienle is coming into form, but Frodeno’s focus was Frankfurt, not Worlds. Bottom line, if he doesn’t blow up, he wins. Plus, his wife is smokin hot.
3 Frederik Van Lierde BEL – Former champ. Lots of experience and no weaknesses, but no stand out strengths either. He won in gladiator style as those ahead of him collapsed (literally). So if it’s a rough day out there, he will rise. Top 5.
4 Ben Hoffman USA – Inconsistent this year after his breakout second place. I hope “The Hoff” proves not to be the one hitter that Pete Jacobs has shown to be, but I don’t see it this year.
5 Andy Potts USA – Very balanced race last year. Fastest swim and 3rd fastest run, and only 2:15 out of second place. He’s got tons of experience here, so a solid bike ride gets him 3rd and a podium.
6 Nils Frommhold GER – Well rounded. Strong in all 3 disciplines. We’ll see if coming to Texas to prepare was a smart decision.
7 Timothy Van Berkel AUS– Almost identical to Nils in performance last year. If he has a good day, he’ll be hunting for podium.
8 Bart Aernouts BEL – Has got to get out of the water faster. If you get out of the water behind Kienle but can’t ride like him, a podium is out.
9 Lionel Sanders CAN – Has to fix his swim. He’ll likely ride like a bat out of hell, but making up 10 minutes out of the water will likely cost him dearly on the run.
12 Matt Hanson USA – A sentimental favorite of mine. He won the North American Champs, but did it from a 10 minute deficit to Joe Skipper off the bike. He has to show he can swim better, because the leaders will put him away early if he doesn’t. He needs a really hot run to claw through the field. If he gets that, I think a top 10 will be possible.
14 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL – No one can say Marino doesn’t leave it all out there. He has blown up late in an Ironman on a number of occasions, so that’s almost come to be expected as this point. BUT, If his head is right, he has the talent to be fighting for the win. The “I quit Kona”, “I’m coming out of Kona retirement” (in less than a year) thing has me wondering if the pressure is off a bit and he has a great day.
17 Tim Don GBR – Rookie Kona race. At 37 and former Olympian, he has the skills, but needs some Kona experience.
21 Timothy O’Donnell USA – He’s got the talent to podium or even win, but last year fell apart on the run. If he puts it all together he could be the top American and in the hunt for a podium.
24 Ivan Rana ESP – Great runner, but lost 28 minutes to Kienle last year on the bike. 28. Twenty Eight. XXVIII. Has to ride faster and run his arse off to crack top 10.
26 Joe Skipper GBR -I honestly don’t know where to put this guy. Super talented, super nice, and has won at the distance. Got out of the water next to Hanson at Texas, but then threw down a 4:10 bike. If he can get to dry land quick enough he could be in the first group off the bike. But if he’s trying to make up a minute on Kienle on the ride, then he could be walking on the Queen K. A smart race and cooler temps puts him in the top 10 I think.
28 Eneko Llanos ESP – “It is a dream, but really hard to make it real. I want to happy with my performance and feel I did my best. I’d be happy with top 10.” -Eneko Llanos – That’s all you need to know.
35 Andreas Raelert GER – Man oh man. One of my favorite races to watch, second to Ironwar, was Raelert and Macca duking it out. He has the talent. He’s proven the podium. Every year though since the Macca battle, it seems something has derailed the season. DNF in Texas as he was set up nicely to win it. I hope he puts another one together, because it sure would be fun to see some gutsy racing from him.
36 Luke McKenzie AUS – My gut says resurgence on Saturday. He’s grabbed an Ironman this year and is in good shape. But he’s got a family now, which is often the kiss of death for the top pro men. If he doesn’t reclaim his old self this year then he won’t. Worth following on Instagram though.
50 Maik Twelsiek GER – Crushed the bike last year, and was less than a minute off the top ten. If he can get out of the water quicker, I expect to see him on TV for the return trip from Hawi, but needs a quicker run to hang on to a top 10 spot.
58 Justin Daerr USA -I’m just not sure how well his swim has progressed. He’s another sentimental favorite being a Texas boy (and former Aggie if I recall). He’s got the bike and run skills to get him there, but like some of the others, if he misses the train out of town, he’s gonna have a helluva time trying to get back into the fight.
Women – This is a much simpler equation. The women’s field has gotten a little deeper over the years, but it’s still spread out and leaves only a few left in the hunt for the win. (16 minutes separated the top 11 men, that same 16 minutes accounted for 6 women) Those few would be Rinny, Ryf, Steffen, Cave and Naeth, with Joyce and Swallow in the hunt. Leanda had a horrible race last year, but this year seems to be racing well, and as a former champ, I can’t count her out. No need for the full breakdown of each person here, as some of the speedy swimmers like Haley Chura and Jody Swallow will lead everyone out of town, but once they turn off of the Queen for the climb to Hawi, It will be all about the runners keeping the cyclists as close as possible. If Ryf, Naeth and Steffen and make good time on the bike, then I can see Ryf with the win and Naeth putting up a good fight with her. But it’s gotta be substantial because if they can’t, well, then you’re gonna see the Rinny train plow over people for her 4th. And as much time as Rinny made up on the run last year, keep in mind she still crossed the line WITH A 2 MINUTE BUFFER. As I see it, it will be #1 Carfrae #2 Ryf #3 Naeth #4 Cave #5 Joyce #6 Steffen.
Of course Carfrae could get hit by a car before the race (Oh wait, that already happened) or Jan could get sick (hasn’t happened), so your guess is as good as mine. Enjoy the big day and good luck to everyone!
