Kona Predictions
Kona 1986
Just like everyone else in the triathlon world, I’m excited for this weekend’s race. And just like everyone else in the triathlon world I have my opinion on who I think will win. So here goes, my picks and my reasons. Some are bold, some are obvious.
Men
Here is the men’s list of starters for Saturday:
Bib Name
1 Frederik Van Lierde
2 Luke McKenzie
3 Sebastian Kienle
4 Bart Aernouts
5 Tyler Butterfield
6 Timothy O’Donnell
7 Ivan Rana
8 James Cunnama
9 Jan Frodeno
10 Terenzo Bozzone
11 Craig Alexander
12 Pete Jacobs
14 Victor Del Corral
15 Andy Potts
16 Michael Weiss
17 Igor Amorelli
18 Matthew Russell
19 Joe Gambles
20 Tim Van Berkel
21 Daniel Halksworth
22 Chris McDonald
23 David Plese
24 Marino Vanhoenacker
25 Eneko Llanos
26 Maik Twelsiek
27 Elliot Holtham
28 Faris Al-Sultan
29 TJ Tollakson
30 Paul Matthews
31 Andrew Starykowicz
32 Harry Wiltshire
33 Marek Jaskolka
34 Richie Cunningham
35 Christian Kramer
36 Jeremy Jurkiewicz
37 David Dellow
38 Cyril Viennot
40 Filip Ospaly
41 Ben Hoffman
42 Christian Brader
43 Nils Frommhold
44 Justin Daerr
Of that list, here’s who I think can contend for a podium, and why I think they could or couldn’t win:
Bib Name
1 Frederik Van Lierde – Last year’s champion. He has no weaknesses, but there’s a lot of pressure to defend. Now that race plans will be based on his movements, winning will be much tougher.
2 Luke McKenzie – Breakout year last year and lead for much of the race, but has a new baby this year and that adds a new wrinkle to training life and bends focus.
3 Sebastian Kienle – A bit of a monster on the bike last year in perfect weather. Rougher weather could lower his chances, and that boy-band hair adds 12 lame-o minutes to his time.
6 Timothy O’Donnell – 5th last year, new coach this year in Mark Allen. Stopped racing so much and is focused on Kona. Married a 2 time champ this year who eats nails for breakfast. Swam and ran same splits as Frederik last year. A better bike ride puts him in front.
9 Jan Frodeno – Olympic Gold Medalist, strong and fast in all categories. He wondered out loud in an interview that he wasn’t sure why no one had broken 8 hours yet. Everything says he should be a shoe in for a victory at some point. Except it’s his first Kona and he’s big. Big is tough in this heat. Just ask Macca. He will make it interesting for sure.
11 Craig Alexander – 3 time champ had the fitness last year but flatted and worked too hard to get back. The guy has an insane travel schedule and a family, but knows how to prep and win. Could be an epic day if he’s off the bike in good shape.
12 Pete Jacobs – He’s won before so he has to count as a contender, but can’t stay healthy.
15 Andy Potts – No real weakness, and always in the front early, but is a big guy, so he needs a cushion on the run if it’s hot.
24 Marino Vanhoenacker – Has the talent, but man this guy knows how to blow up at the end of a marathon.
25 Eneko Llanos – Raced a ton last year, and backed off this year to focus on Kona. New baby in the mix. Has Dave Scott as his coach so he’s got good direction. When asked in an interview if he thinks he can win this year, he said he thinks he can do really well. Humble or lack of confidence?
28 Faris Al-Sultan – Has won before and always in the hunt. The ladies dig him so he’ll gain a few minutes on the run just in ladies screaming.
48 Bevan Docherty – Has some serious closing speed on the run, but is fairly new to Kona.
54 Andreas Raelert – Probably should have won in 2010, but hasn’t shown that form since.
Bold Prediction: 1. Timothy O’Donnell 2. Frederik Van Lierde 3. Craig Alexander4.Luke McKenzie 5.Sebastian Kienle
Sentimental Favorite: Crowie
Women:
Here’s the list of starters:
Bib Name
101 Mirinda Carfrae
102 Rachel Joyce
103 Meredith Kessler
104 Liz Blatchford
105 Caroline Steffen
106 Gina Crawford
107 Yvonne Van Vlerken
108 Linsey Corbin
109 Caitlin Snow
110 Elizabeth Lyles
111 Leanda Cave
112 Daniela Ryf
113 Amber Ferreira
115 Sara Gross
116 Catriona Morrison
117 Mary Beth Ellis
118 Melanie Burke
119 Asa Lundstroem
120 Beth Shutt
121 Michelle Vesterby
122 Kristin Moeller
123 Lucy Gossage
124 Amanda Stevens
125 Jodie Swallow
126 Sofie Goos
127 Natascha Badmann
128 Julia Gajer
129 Lisa Roberts
130 Corinne Abraham
131 Simone Braendli
132 Jackie Arendt
133 Kim Schwabenbauer
134 Bree Wee
136 Heather Wurtele
137 Kelly Williamson
138 Katja Konschak
Of that list, here’s who I think can contend for a podium, and why I think they could or couldn’t win:
Bib Name
101 Mirinda Carfrae – 2 time champ and record holder. It’s her race to lose.
102 Rachel Joyce – Raced injured last year and picked up Dave Scott as a coach. 5 minutes was all she needed last year.
103 Meredith Kessler – Good swim and bike last year. Needs a run this year.
104 Liz Blatchford – 3rd last year. Here splits were only 2 minutes slower combined than Joyce, but got beat by 6. Transitions need to sharpen up.
105 Caroline Steffen – Has the tools to win. Working with Macca now to who can fix the confidence.
107 Yvonne Van Vlerken – 1:01 swim last year in perfect water. Needs to get out with the group to be a threat to win.
108 Linsey Corbin – Like Yvonne, she has to get out of the water faster. If you’re out after Rinny then it’s over.
111 Leanda Cave – Has won here, and seems to be a little pissed.
112 Daniela Ryf – Crazy fast. Won 2 Ironman titles and both 70.3 Euro and World titles this year. All done in cool weather though. Could put a stamp on this race or could pop in the heat.
125 Jodie Swallow – DNF last year on the run, but swam and biked with the leaders.
Bold Prediction: 1.Rinny 2. Rachel Joyce 3. Caroline Steffen 4. Leanda Cave ....in one of the closest finishes we’ve seen. Won’t be decided until after mile 20.
Can’t wait to find out. Disagree with me? Let me have it. Some good trash talk will do nothing but make the day better!
